Restructuring Case Studies
Walk-forward model validation audits on historically distressed entities.
To validate the classification accuracy of our LightGBM default probability model, we publish detailed retrospective case studies. These audits represent walk-forward out-of-sample tests, training the model parameters on historical datasets preceding each case and running inference on actual public filings.
Published Case Studies
1. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. — 2019 Retrospective
- Assigned Danger Score: 41.6
- Risk Classification: CRITICAL
- Outcome: Hertz filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2020 (12 months post-evaluation).
- Key Indicators: Extreme asset-backed securitization (ABS) leverage (92.3%) combined with declining used-car asset resale values.
- Read Full Analysis →
2. Carvana Co. — 2022 Restructuring Case Study
- Assigned Danger Score: 44.8
- Risk Classification: CRITICAL
- Outcome: Entered out-of-court senior note debt exchange in July 2023.
- Key Indicators: Debt-financed acquisition of ADESA, negative cash coverage, interest rate hikes, and high equity short interest.
- Read Full Analysis →
Accessing Gated Reports
While these case studies are ungated for verification purposes, our live corporate alerts and newly published default analyses are restricted to early-access subscribers. Review our pricing options or browse the full research archives to subscribe.